Thursday, June 11, 2015

Inevitability

Repeat after me...

Hillary Clinton's nomination is inevitable.
Hillary Clinton's nomination is inevitable.
Hillary Clinton's nomination is inevitable.
Hillary Clinton's nomination is inevitable.

Noone cares about the Clintons' "honoraria" or the Foundation's "contributions".
Noone cares about the Clintons' "honoraria" or the Foundation's "contributions".
Noone cares about the Clintons' "honoraria" or the Foundation's "contributions".
Noone cares about the Clintons' "honoraria" or the Foundation's "contributions".

There's noone else.
There's noone else.
There's noone else.
There's noone else.

Poll after poll show that Hillary Clinton's favorability ratings are plunging. Take one pollster-CNN:

5/29/14-6/1/14: 55+, 42-, 3 undecided (net 13+)
11/21/14-11/23/14: 59+, 38+, 2 U (net 21+)
3/13/15-3/15/15: 53+ 44-, 2 U (net 9+)
5/29/15-5/31/15: 46+, 50-, 3 (net 4-)

Here's how she is doing head-to-head with possible GOP nominees:

4/20/15:
General Election: Bush vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 56, Bush 39Clinton +17
General Election: Walker vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 59, Walker 37Clinton +22
General Election: Paul vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 58, Paul 39Clinton +19
General Election: Cruz vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 60, Cruz 36Clinton +24
General Election: Rubio vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 55, Rubio 41Clinton +14
General Election: Christie vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 58, Christie 39Clinton +19
General Election: Huckabee vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 58, Huckabee 37Clinton +21
General Election: Carson vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 60, Carson 36Clinton +24

6/2/15:


Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
General Election: Bush vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 51, Bush 43Clinton +8
General Election: Walker vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 49, Walker 46Clinton +3
General Election: Rubio vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 49, Rubio 46Clinton +3
General Election: Paul vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 48, Paul 47Clinton +1
General Election: Cruz vs. ClintonCNN/Opinion ResearchClinton 52, Cruz 43Clinton +9
General Election: Bush vs. ClintonABC/Wash PostClinton 47, Bush 44Clinton +3

Her support among Democrats is even suffering:


ollDateSampleClinton Sanders Biden O'Malley Webb Chafee Spread
RCP Average5/19 - 6/2--59.011.511.32.31.50.8Clinton +47.5
FOX News5/31 - 6/2395 RV57118421Clinton +46
CNN/Opinion Research5/29 - 5/31433 A601014120Clinton +46
ABC News/Wash Post5/28 - 5/31376 RV621014311Clinton +48
Quinnipiac5/19 - 5/26748 RV57159111Clinton +42
FOX News5/9 - 5/12370 LV6366020Clinton +50
PPP (D)5/7 - 5/10600 RV6313--265Clinton +50
FOX News4/19 - 4/21388 LV6249100Clinton +50
Quinnipiac4/16 - 4/21569 RV60810310Clinton +50
CNN/Opinion Research4/16 - 4/19458 A69511131Clinton +58
FOX News3/29 - 3/31397 LV6131221--Clinton +49
PPP (D)3/26 - 3/31449 RV546732--Clinton +40
ABC News/Wash Post3/26 - 3/29RV6651201--Clinton +54
CNN/Opinion Research3/13 - 3/15466 A6231511--Clinton +47
McClatchy/Marist3/1 - 3/4462 RV6051311--Clinton +47
Quinnipiac2/26 - 3/2493 RV5641001--Clinton +42
PPP (D)2/20 - 2/22310 RV5451612--Clinton +38
CNN/Opinion Research2/12 - 2/15RV6031512--Clinton +45
FOX News1/25 - 1/27390 RV5531721--Clinton +38
PPP (D)1/22 - 1/25386 RV6021511--Clinton +45
Rasmussen Reports1/18 - 1/19648 LV594623--Clinton +47
CNN/Opinion Research12/18 - 12/21469 A663811--Clinton +57
ABC News/Wash Post12/11 - 12/14346 RV6141403--Clinton +47
FOX News12/7 - 12/9409 RV6231011--Clinton +50
McClatchy/Marist12/3 - 12/9429 RV6241111--Clinton +51
CNN/Opinion Research11/21 - 11/23457 A655901--Clinton +55
Quinnipiac11/18 - 11/23610 RV574911--Clinton +44
Rasmussen Reports11/20 - 11/21LV62--722--Clinton +45
ABC News/Wash Post10/9 - 10/12RV6411312--Clinton +51
McClatchy/Marist9/24 - 9/29408 RV6441521--Clinton +49
FOX News7/20 - 7/22438 RV64--121----Clinton +52
CNN/Opinion Research7/18 - 7/20449 A67--82----Clinton +57
Quinnipiac6/24 - 6/30610 RV58--91----Clinton +47
ABC News/Wash Post5/29 - 6/1RV6921221--Clinton +57
FOX News4/13 - 4/15395 RV69--141----Clinton +55
Reason-Rupe/PSRAI3/26 - 3/30A64--11------Clinton +53
CNN/Opinion Research3/7 - 3/9372 A64--134----Clinton +51
PPP (D)3/6 - 3/9429 RV66--112----Clinton +55
PPP (D)1/23 - 1/26334 RV67--71----Clinton +60
ABC News/Wash Post1/20 - 1/23RV73--11------Clinton +62
Quinnipiac1/15 - 1/19803 RV65--81----Clinton +57
FOX News12/14 - 12/16412 RV68--121----Clinton +56
PPP (D)12/12 - 12/15453 RV66--102----Clinton +56
Quinnipiac12/3 - 12/91095 RV66--80----Clinton +58
McClatchy/Marist12/3 - 12/5466 RV65--121----Clinton +53
CNN/Opinion Research11/18 - 11/20RV64--122----Clinton +52
Rasmussen Reports11/7 - 11/8LV70--100----Clinton +60
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31400 RV67--122----Clinton +55
Quinnipiac9/23 - 9/29RV61--110----Clinton +50
CNN/Opinion Research9/6 - 9/8448 RV65--102----Clinton +55
Rasmussen Reports8/1 - 8/2LV63--121----Clinton +51
PPP (D)7/19 - 7/21418 RV52--121----Clinton +40
McClatchy/Marist7/15 - 7/18426 RV63--131----Clinton +50
PPP (D)5/6 - 5/9589 RV63--132----Clinton +50
Quinnipiac4/25 - 4/29RV65--131----Clinton +52
PPP (D)3/27 - 3/30666 RV64--181----Clinton +46
PPP (D)1/31 - 2/3416 RV58--191----Clinton +39
PPP (D)1/3 - 1/6400 RV57--163----Clinton +41
PPP (D)11/30 - 12/2454 RV61--122----Clinton +49

If Bernie Sanders is polling over 10% and Joe Biden is tied with him despite not having said a word about running, there's an opening. 

Oh, yes, she's leading in the polls. So were Lyndon Johnson in 1967, Edmund Muskie in 1971, Scoop Washington in November 1975, Edward Kennedy in November 1979, Mario Cuomo in 1991, and Hillary Clinton in November 2007. 

Noone is inevitable.  

If anyone is silly enough to disregard the fact that Clinton has very heavy baggage that is costing her and is likely to get worse once she comes under attack, what can we say?

Nature abhors a vacuum. So does politics.

Is there an alternative? Yes.

Joe Biden. Martin O'Malley. Elizabeth Warren. Mark Warner. 

Nature will take its course.