RCP Addicts: Which Pollsters Are the Most and the Least Reliable?

This will be my shortest post ever. 

I went to Fivethirtyeight.com and copied the rating of various pollsters. Leaving out the data that led to the rating, here are the top-rated and bottom-rated. Go here to get the original data and the full listings. Generally, the ratings were based on the techniques used, the accuracy of the polls on a gross (batting average) basis, and what I interpret to be volatility.

I have highlighted the pollsters with over 50 polls. Those that have been "banned" by Nate Silver & Friends are shown with an asterisk after the rating. (Others were banned but were not either A- or higher or C- and lower.)

One observation: generally it appears that Real Clear Politics does not show bottom-of-the-barrel polls. 

Rank	Pollster	No. of Polls	Rating
1	Monmouth University	71	A+
2	Field Research Corporation (Field Poll)	25	A+
3	Selzer & Company	37	A+
4	Elway Research	18	A+
5	Ciruli Associates	17	A+
6	ABC News/Washington Post	51	A+
7	Grove Insight	29	A
8	Marist College	146	A
9	Muhlenberg College	22	A
10	National Journal	12	A
11	Public Policy Institute of California	12	A
12	Survey USA	763	A
13	University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)	38	A
14	Siena College	42	A
15	Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)	18	A
16	Research & Polling, Inc.	26	A
17	Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research	24	A
18	Marquette University	7	A
19	Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain)	7	A
20	Blum & Weprin Associates	18	A
21	NBC News/Wall Street Journal	25	A-
22	University of Connecticut	7	A-
23	Time/Abt SRBI	7	A-
24	Angus Reid Global	29	A-
25	Ipsos	49	A-
26	Quinnipiac University	169	A-
27	University of Arkansas	4	A-
28	IBD/TIPP	17	A-
29	CBS News/New York Times	55	A-
30	CNN/Opinion Research Corp.	89	A-
31	Los Angeles Times	40	A-
32	MassINC Polling Group	11	A-
33	St. Norbert College	12	A-
34	EPIC-MRA	43	A-
35	Western New England University	11	A-
337	Merriman River Group	21	C-
338	Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage	105	C-
339	Rainmaker Media Group	1	C-
340	Consumer Logic	4	C-
341	University of Alabama	2	C-
342	McLaughlin & Associates	19	C-
343	Neighbor	1	C-
344	Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics	465	C-
345	Southeastern Louisiana University	8	C-
346	Harris Interactive	135	C-
347	Ohio University	2	C-
348	20/20 Insight	5	C-
349	Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne	3	C-
350	Opinion Research Associates	12	C-
351	Optimus	4	C-
352	SurveyMonkey	11	C-
353	Loyola University (New Orleans)	2	C-
354	Clout Research/Wenzel Strategies	9	C-
355	Data West Polling	3	C-
356	Baydoun Consulting	6	C-
357	Fort Hays State University	4	C-
358	Brown University	12	C-
359	Nielson Brothers Polling	6	C-
360	WCIA-TV	2	C-
361	CPEC LLC	3	D+
362	Marketing Workshop	7	D+
363	Riggs Research Services	1	D+
364	Dane & Associates	2	D+
365	Brigham Young University	4	D+
366	Massie & Associates	2	D+
367	Valley Research	6	D+
368	Millersville University	5	D
369	Jayhawk Consulting	1	D
370	Mitchell Research & Communications	47	D
371	Humphrey Institute	10	D-
372	TCJ Research	133	F   *

What if Ivanka Convinces Daddy to Come in Out of the Rain?

The clamor among Democrats to embarrass "mainstream" Republicans to abandon Trump is getting louder. President Obama chimed in yesterday.

As a life-long Democrat, I offer this advice: LEAVE IT ALONE. STOP ENCOURAGING THE ONE PERSON THIS FOOL MAY LISTEN TO, IVANKA, TO CONVINCE DADDY TO RESIGN HIS NOMINATION.

The Donald is taking care of his problems quite well, thank you (for the Democrats, that is). Why increase the pressure on the GOP to dump Trump, and thereby encourage his family (Ivanka) to convince him to come out of the rain?

There is a procedure in the GOP National Committee Rules to fill a vacancy "which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States." The Republican National Committee can do so either by itself or by reconvening the GOP Convention.

The Rules do not expressly answer whether the nomination of a Presidential candidate can be amended or rescinded in the absence of a "declination" by the nominee. They do not even answer, whether a nominee, once nominated, can resign as nominee. (In the Democratic Party in 1972, Thomas Eagleton "resigned" as the Vice Presidential nominee after it was revealed that he had undergone shock treatment.) But let's assume a nominee can resign. Under the above Rule, there is every reason to believe that, once nominated, a nominee stays in that position unless there is a vacancy. Maybe short of death or resignation, the nominee can be replaced, but it is very likely only in the case of a clear disability. 

The Rules provide that "[t]he current authorized edition of Robert's Rules of Order: Newly Revised ('Robert’s Rules of Order') shall govern in all meetings of the Republican National Committee and its committees insofar as they are applicable and not inconsistent with these rules." Does this cover the decisions of the Convention? Who knows? 

Let's assume Robert's at least will be consulted.  Robert's says that a motion to nominate a candidate for an "office" may not be amended. The listing of motions that may not be amended refers to the procedure to be followed while a meeting is going on. Does this include a motion, once passed? Who knows?

From the appearances, Trump won't take direction from anyone, least of all any other Republican. But there is a way to get to him: through his daughter, Ivanka.

The bottom line question is what if the Power That Be, i.e., Ivanka, convinces the Donald that his brand is getting trashed and he will look like a fool, and the fool actually resigns? 

This is what Hillary Clinton should fear more than anything. Here we are, 14 months after Trump has, day after day, revealed himself, and a full week after the Democratic National Convention, and the four national polls (admittedly, an imperfect measure, given that we elect through the Electoral College, but a very reliable one nevertheless) conducted after the conclusion of that convention and listed in Real Clear Politics have HRC up by a mere 5.5%, almost within the margin of error. (Yes, there are two other national candidates, and these are polls limited to these two major party candidates, but allow me to paint with a broad brush on this one, since neither of the other two is likely to win an electoral vote, and the four-way post-DNC polls show a 6% margin.) She is a weak candidate, whether she should be or not. 

One can only imagine what a candidate like Kasich could do to Clinton. He has name recognition. He's a true conservative. And he is pure as the driven snow on the acid test--support of Trump--by reason of his having stayed in the race 'til the end and not only refusing to endorse him but boycotting the convention in his own State. 

My fellow Democrats, stop pushing and stick to the issues. The Donald will take care of himself.