Monday, August 22, 2016

RCP Addicts: Which Pollsters Are the Most and the Least Reliable?

This will be my shortest post ever. 

I went to Fivethirtyeight.com and copied the rating of various pollsters. Leaving out the data that led to the rating, here are the top-rated and bottom-rated. Go here to get the original data and the full listings. Generally, the ratings were based on the techniques used, the accuracy of the polls on a gross (batting average) basis, and what I interpret to be volatility.

I have highlighted the pollsters with over 50 polls. Those that have been "banned" by Nate Silver & Friends are shown with an asterisk after the rating. (Others were banned but were not either A- or higher or C- and lower.)

One observation: generally it appears that Real Clear Politics does not show bottom-of-the-barrel polls. 

Rank Pollster No. of Polls Rating
1 Monmouth University 71 A+
2 Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) 25 A+
3 Selzer & Company 37 A+
4 Elway Research 18 A+
5 Ciruli Associates 17 A+
6 ABC News/Washington Post 51 A+
7 Grove Insight 29 A
8 Marist College 146 A
9 Muhlenberg College 22 A
10 National Journal 12 A
11 Public Policy Institute of California 12 A
12 Survey USA 763 A
13 University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) 38 A
14 Siena College 42 A
15 Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) 18 A
16 Research & Polling, Inc. 26 A
17 Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research 24 A
18 Marquette University 7 A
19 Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain) 7 A
20 Blum & Weprin Associates 18 A
21 NBC News/Wall Street Journal 25 A-
22 University of Connecticut 7 A-
23 Time/Abt SRBI 7 A-
24 Angus Reid Global 29 A-
25 Ipsos 49 A-
26 Quinnipiac University 169 A-
27 University of Arkansas 4 A-
28 IBD/TIPP 17 A-
29 CBS News/New York Times 55 A-
30 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 89 A-
31 Los Angeles Times 40 A-
32 MassINC Polling Group 11 A-
33 St. Norbert College 12 A-
34 EPIC-MRA 43 A-
35 Western New England University 11 A-
337 Merriman River Group 21 C-
338 Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage 105 C-
339 Rainmaker Media Group 1 C-
340 Consumer Logic 4 C-
341 University of Alabama 2 C-
342 McLaughlin & Associates 19 C-
343 Neighbor 1 C-
344 Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics 465 C-
345 Southeastern Louisiana University 8 C-
346 Harris Interactive 135 C-
347 Ohio University 2 C-
348 20/20 Insight 5 C-
349 Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne 3 C-
350 Opinion Research Associates 12 C-
351 Optimus 4 C-
352 SurveyMonkey 11 C-
353 Loyola University (New Orleans) 2 C-
354 Clout Research/Wenzel Strategies 9 C-
355 Data West Polling 3 C-
356 Baydoun Consulting 6 C-
357 Fort Hays State University 4 C-
358 Brown University 12 C-
359 Nielson Brothers Polling 6 C-
360 WCIA-TV 2 C-
361 CPEC LLC 3 D+
362 Marketing Workshop 7 D+
363 Riggs Research Services 1 D+
364 Dane & Associates 2 D+
365 Brigham Young University 4 D+
366 Massie & Associates 2 D+
367 Valley Research 6 D+
368 Millersville University 5 D
369 Jayhawk Consulting 1 D
370 Mitchell Research & Communications 47 D
371 Humphrey Institute 10 D-
372 TCJ Research 133 F   *

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