Wednesday, August 3, 2016

What if Ivanka Convinces Daddy to Come in Out of the Rain?

The clamor among Democrats to embarrass "mainstream" Republicans to abandon Trump is getting louder. President Obama chimed in yesterday.


The Donald is taking care of his problems quite well, thank you (for the Democrats, that is). Why increase the pressure on the GOP to dump Trump, and thereby encourage his family (Ivanka) to convince him to come out of the rain?

There is a procedure in the GOP National Committee Rules to fill a vacancy "which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States." The Republican National Committee can do so either by itself or by reconvening the GOP Convention.

The Rules do not expressly answer whether the nomination of a Presidential candidate can be amended or rescinded in the absence of a "declination" by the nominee. They do not even answer, whether a nominee, once nominated, can resign as nominee. (In the Democratic Party in 1972, Thomas Eagleton "resigned" as the Vice Presidential nominee after it was revealed that he had undergone shock treatment.) But let's assume a nominee can resign. Under the above Rule, there is every reason to believe that, once nominated, a nominee stays in that position unless there is a vacancy. Maybe short of death or resignation, the nominee can be replaced, but it is very likely only in the case of a clear disability. 

The Rules provide that "[t]he current authorized edition of Robert's Rules of Order: Newly Revised ('Robert’s Rules of Order') shall govern in all meetings of the Republican National Committee and its committees insofar as they are applicable and not inconsistent with these rules." Does this cover the decisions of the Convention? Who knows? 

Let's assume Robert's at least will be consulted.  Robert's says that a motion to nominate a candidate for an "office" may not be amended. The listing of motions that may not be amended refers to the procedure to be followed while a meeting is going on. Does this include a motion, once passed? Who knows?

From the appearances, Trump won't take direction from anyone, least of all any other Republican. But there is a way to get to him: through his daughter, Ivanka.

The bottom line question is what if the Power That Be, i.e., Ivanka, convinces the Donald that his brand is getting trashed and he will look like a fool, and the fool actually resigns? 

This is what Hillary Clinton should fear more than anything. Here we are, 14 months after Trump has, day after day, revealed himself, and a full week after the Democratic National Convention, and the four national polls (admittedly, an imperfect measure, given that we elect through the Electoral College, but a very reliable one nevertheless) conducted after the conclusion of that convention and listed in Real Clear Politics have HRC up by a mere 5.5%, almost within the margin of error. (Yes, there are two other national candidates, and these are polls limited to these two major party candidates, but allow me to paint with a broad brush on this one, since neither of the other two is likely to win an electoral vote, and the four-way post-DNC polls show a 6% margin.) She is a weak candidate, whether she should be or not. 

One can only imagine what a candidate like Kasich could do to Clinton. He has name recognition. He's a true conservative. And he is pure as the driven snow on the acid test--support of Trump--by reason of his having stayed in the race 'til the end and not only refusing to endorse him but boycotting the convention in his own State. 

My fellow Democrats, stop pushing and stick to the issues. The Donald will take care of himself.

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